Note that there has been a wide range around the long-term total return average at the current earnings yield level. This range spans 1% at the low end to 15% at the high end. The 1% low end occurred from January 2001 to December 2010, and covered the tech bubble burst and the global financial crisis. The high end of the current earnings yield range occurred from September 1987 to August 1997, from Black Monday until well into the information technology revolution.

Market forecasting should not be the cornerstone of an investment management process because the investor’s individual circumstances take priority. However, by looking at the historical data, one may derive information on the current valuations relative to long-term averages. This method of gauging the financial markets is not one-hundred percent accurate, but Stringer Asset Management believes valuations are a good measure to consider when developing long-term expected returns. Investors should not blindly put capital to work based on valuations but it is better to have tailwinds than headwinds.

This article was written by Gary Stringer, CIO, Kim Escue, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Chad Keller, COO and CCO at Stringer Asset Management, a participant in the ETF Strategist Channel.


Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies explained are Stringer Asset Management LLC’s as of the date of publication. They are considered to be accurate at the time of writing, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect to error or omission is accepted. They are subject to change without reference or notification. The views contained herein are not be taken as an advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment and the material should not be relied upon as containing sufficient information to support an investment decision. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance quoted.

Data is provided by various sources and prepared by Stringer Asset Management LLC and has not been verified or audited by an independent accountant.

The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The Index is designed to measure performance of a broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.