As 2024 approaches, advisors face many critical challenges. With the Shiller CAPE ratio near 30 and the forward P/E ratio near 19, U.S. equities are richly valued by historical standards. Is it time to hedge downside exposure? Will interest rates continue to rise, weakening the prospects for long-duration bonds? Has inflation been tamed, or will the Fed need to ease monetary policy to avert a recession? During our Market Outlook Symposium, our panelists will offer their analysis and answers to those questions and the others that will determine whether your clients will reach their financial goals.
Bob Huebscher will be interviewing Jeremy Siegel for the 17th consecutive year. We will review the accuracy of Siegel’s forecasts from last year, and get his predictions for the stock market, interest rates and the economy for the coming year.
In 2023, large-cap and growth stocks dominated U.S. equity performance. Much of those gains were attributable to the “magnificent seven” high-tech wonders. But will that persist into 2024? Our panelists will look at the valuations across sub-sectors of the U.S. equity universe, including dividend and defensive stocks, to forecast where the best opportunities and biggest risks will be in the coming year.
Bonds were dealt a devasting blow in 2022. But performance has been better in 2023, with investment-grade debt breaking even and high-yield bonds returning about 4%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen about 80 basis points, reflecting rate increases across the yield curve. Some bonds, such as TIPS, are now priced at historically attractive rates. Our panel will look at the economic and market trends driving interest rate movements, including the outlook for inflation.
Are muni bonds attractive relative to core taxable funds today? Should investors focus on short term, high yield or more traditional investment grade core strategies? Do you want to turn to active management for muni exposure? You have lots of questions about munis and we will be providing answers thanks to industry experts.
Cryptocurrency investments have started going mainstream and many of your clients are expressing interest in them. The panel will delve into how these existing futures based ETFs and pending spot ETFs can add to your portfolio in 2024. We will be joined by some of the industry experts ready to take your questions and ours.
Specialized ETFs that focus on an investment thematic are generally launched when the hype around a specific thematic is increasing or peaking. Despite those risks, some of the top-performing ETFs have been focused on artificial intelligence and other high-technology themes. Our panel will look at the drivers of performance across the most popular themes in 2023 and will offer their predictions for those to invest in and to avoid in 2024.
Japanese and European equities have posted gains in 2023, unlike emerging markets and Chinese stocks, which have suffered losses. On a broader scale, U.S. stocks dominated foreign equities from 2009-2021. That trend reversed in 2022, but this year has again favored U.S. equities. Our panelists will examine whether this is finally the time to allocate to non-U.S. markets, and will look at the valuations, risks and opportunities in various markets.
With short-term Treasury rates between 5% and 6%, the temptation to eliminate credit and duration risk is overwhelming. But the “T-Bill and chill” strategy overlooks compelling opportunities. Private credit, for example, offers spreads of 200 to 500 basis points above comparable Treasury securities. Municipal bonds are attractive for HNW investors. Our panel will look at the risks and opportunities available to investors who are willing to take on some credit or duration risk.
Costs for active management have been decreasing for the last 20 years, and that is especially true among actively managed ETF. As a result, despite holding about 6% of total ETF assets, actively managed ETFs added almost one-third of total flows in September 2023. Nearly 75% of the launches so far this year have been active ETFs. This panel of active managers will reveal where they are seeing the biggest opportunities and the biggest risks, and how they expect to generate alpha in the coming year.
As the year draws to a close, it may be time to think about your federal tax bill by considering tax-loss harvesting opportunities. ETFs provide a great way of replacing underperforming strategies with cost savings. We are going to talk about how the various funds available as well as tools to make the decisions clients will appreciate.
Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance,
The Wharton School
Chief Investment Officer,
Bitwise Asset Management
Head of Fixed Income and Alternatives ETF Product Strategy,
Head of Walter Scott North America ,
BNY Mellon Securities Corporation
SVP, Head of ETFs,
By registering, you are certifying that you are a financial
professional and agree to share your data with ETF Trends and opt-in to receiving occasional communications
about projects and events. The contents of this form are subject to the ETF Trends'
COPYRIGHT © 2005–2023 VETTAFI LLC