Treasury yields rallied on Tuesday amid optimism over a potential vaccine from Russia, which drove investors away from safe haven assets like bonds and precious metals.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note increased 6 basis points to 0.6407% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed 8 basis points to 1.3252% as bond prices fell. Yields move inversely to prices.
The 30-year Treasury had reached as high as 183 recently before tumbling to 179 on Tuesday. The Schwab Long-Term US Treasury ETF (SCHQ) fell as much as 1.53% amid the drop in bonds, as investors piled into stocks, sending the S&P 500 towards a fresh all-time high.
“Markets are looking forward to better days ahead,” Jeff Buchbinder, equity strategist at LPL Financial, said in a note. “Although the timing is uncertain, the stock market is expressing confidence that the pandemic will end eventually with a vaccine—or multiple vaccines—and with help from better treatments in the interim.”
The move higher in bonds could be unwelcome news for homebuyers, who have been rewarded with historically low interest rates thanks to the Federal Reserve for some time now.
Robust demand for housing, buoyed by short supply, a move to working from home, and a push to leave urban areas has driven housing prices higher faster, which was aided by historically low interest rates on mortgages, but forecasters warn that that trend in higher prices may abate soon.
“Mortgage rates hit record lows this spring, which enhanced affordability for homebuyers,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “First-time buyers, and millennials, in particular, have jumped at the opportunity to achieve homeownership.”
Some economic data also elevated pressure on the bond market, which has been sliding over the past few days before falling off a cliff Tuesday. U.S. producer prices jumped by an unanticipated 0.6% in July, significantly higher than the 0.3% forecast from economists, relieving concerns that the U.S. was at the risk of succumbing to deflationary pressures. But analysts see auction demand remaining robust in Treasurys.
“Despite the increased supply of Treasuries, we expect auction demand will remain strong as precautionary savings maintain the investment fund bid, while rate differentials and dollar expectations support foreign demand,” said John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics.
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