The Federal Reserve is slated to decide on interest rates in December, which could result in the fourth and final rate hike to end 2018–right now, the CME Group’s FedWatch algorithm shows a 78.4% chance of a rate hike in December. In September, the central bank raised the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points to bring its current level to 2.25.
According to the NAHB, the housing market accounts for roughly 15-18% of the United States’ gross domestic product. If the Fed sees the housing market too far in the rearview mirror going forward, it may posit further before continuing future rate hikes.
Nonetheless, Yearley reminded investors that similar declines in the housing market were experienced in 2013 prior to an uptick–something NAIL traders will be watching closely.
“We saw similar consumer behavior beginning in late 2013, when a rapid rise in interest rates temporarily tempered buyer demand before the market regained momentum,” Yearley told investors.
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