“These supply losses could come from a return to higher levels of disrupted supply in Libya or Nigeria, falling back after the recent recovery. It could also come from new disruptions in Venezuela,” Citi said.

Related: Oil ETFs Look for Supply Catalysts

On the other hand, oil could tank below $40 if disruptions elsewhere get resolved and floods the market with more supply.

U.S. producers could act as a stabilizing agent as shale oil drillers can quickly balance out supply shocks by pumping out more or less to bring prices down to Citi’s projected range.

For more information on the crude oil market, visit our oil category.