While gold has had a strong year so far, breaking out above $1,550 an ounce, the highest level over the past six years, lately it appears the shiny metal may have lost some of its luster.
Spot gold had been rallying strongly, moving to the upside for three weeks out of the past four recently, but met a wall at the highs of $1,524.10 from a low of $1,494.20, and has since slumped back down to its low, currently trading steadily below $1500 an ounce once again.
In particular, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which tracks the commodity’s price, is down more than 2% in the past two weeks after a red-hot summer, and analysts fear the trend could continue due to a reprieve from the pressure on bond rates.
“I think it’s important to distinguish that gold was trading lockstep with bond prices. As rates were collapsing, gold got a bid. It was moving higher, and now as rates start to back up a little bit, gold is correcting. So, I think one’s view on gold and bond prices should be aligned here.”
Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Tengler Wealth Management, also feels that that gold may need some time before it becomes a good buy again.
“I’m not interested at these levels … I think there are places you can invest and, from these levels, make more money,” she said. “The thing that worries me about the GLD is that it’s not backed dollar for dollar with gold bullion. So it is meant to trade in sentiment with gold bullion. So that makes me a little nervous as an investor, and I’m more interested in companies that can make actual money that I can measure.
Wald also sees more downside in the commodity.
“I think there’s a little bit more downside here. Speaking in terms of the GLD, support starts at $139, followed by $136.50. There’s some gaps in the chart there, still a positive trend, so not meaningful downside, but at least a little bit more time is needed,” said Wald.
Not all analysts see more downside for the shiny metal however, as Citigroup has a price target of $2000 on the horizon, anticipating gold to reach the round number over the next couple of years.
Investors looking at gold on the short side can consider the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Gold ETN (DGLD), or the ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL), while gold bulls can stay with the metal using the iShares Gold Trust (IAU), that buys physical gold, or the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares (NUGT), for a leveraged long position.
Click here to check out our Gold ETF list.