With U.S. stocks headed for their first loss in May since 2012, the next few months appear to be a tumultuous time for the market. But despite the trade war turmoil and flight to bonds, as the U.S. marks the unofficial beginning of the summer this week, there are still a handful of equities that have historically performed well in an otherwise bleak landscape.
AAPL is one of those stocks that has bucked the trend, rising consistently over the last few summers, and on balance making gains over the last decade. The tech giant’s stock peaked at $215.31 on May 1, marking its highest point since Nov. 7. The shares of the iPhone company have since shed nearly 18%, set to break their four-month winning streak, amid increasing U.S.-China trade tensions and global uncertainty. However, if history is any guide, the FAANG stock could be ready to rebound this summer.
“Apple ranks first with a median gain of 13% over the last 10 years with gains 80% of the time. Apple has gained at least 7% in each of the last three summers, and the stock’s only decline of any significance came in 2015 when it dropped 14.5%,” said analysts at Bespoke Investment Group in a report.
According to Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, over the past 25 years, the stock boasts a 76% win rate, and with Apple currently trading around $177, another move of this magnitude would have Apple shares trading near $200 by Labor Day.
Aside from APPL, Cooper Cos. (COO), ranked second with a median gain of 12.1%, followed by Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALXN), and Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), came in at number 10 with a median gain of 8.9%.
Listed below is the table of the best performing summer stocks over the last decade:
Despite past solid performance in the summer from these stocks, Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, warned that corporate earnings and economic risks are much more significant than most people anticipate with recent economic data, including durable goods and capital spending, coming in soft.
“All reflect April data which means it weakened before the re-escalation of trade tensions,” Wilson said in his latest missive to clients. “In addition, numerous leading companies may be starting to throw in the towel on the second-half rebound — something we have been expecting but we believe many investors are not.”
Investors looking for ETFs with APPL and NVDA and an assortment of other tech heavyweights might consider the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH) and iShares PHLX Semiconductor (SOXX).
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