The blue circles on the bottom panel highlight periods of low volatility (less than 1% per day between the high and the low), which is comparable to current levels (around 0.75%). They all follow recessions, are defined by relative economic stability, and precede exuberance. In our view, that is where things stand today.
To the extent that some exuberance appears, we think it is likely to come to the US first, since economic stability has been in place in the US for longer than Europe (by our calculations, the US for over five years, compared to just 2 years for Europe).
Rod Smyth is the Chief Investment Strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, a participant in the ETF Strategist Channel.
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Past results are no guarantee of future results and no representation is made that a client will or is likely to achieve positive returns, avoid losses, or experience returns similar to those shown or experienced in the past.
RiverFront’s Price Matters® discipline compares inflation-adjusted current prices relative to their long-term trend to help identify extremes in valuation.
Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
Technical analysis is based on the study of historical price movements and past trend patterns. There are no assurances that movements or trends can or will be duplicated in the future.
Strategies seeking higher returns generally have a greater allocation to equities. These strategies also carry higher risks and are subject to a greater degree of market volatility.
Investments in international and emerging markets securities include exposure to risks such as currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets and political instability.
In a rising interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally declines.
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RiverFront Investment Group, LLC, is an investment adviser registered with the Securities Exchange Commission under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The company manages a variety of portfolios utilizing stocks, bonds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). RiverFront also serves as sub-advisor to a series of mutual funds and ETFs. Opinions expressed are current as of the date shown and are subject to change. They are not intended as investment recommendations.
Index Definitions:
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) measures the performance of 500 large cap stocks, which together represent about 75% of the total US equities market.
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