“The International Coffee Organization expects a global Coffee supply deficit of 3.3 million 90-kg bags this season which would be the second consecutive season of a deficit. The outlook for next season is also negative as lower production is expected out of several major Coffee producing nations including Brazil, Columbia and Vietnam,” according to Options Express.
Brazil is the largest exporter of coffee beans. According to the International Coffee Organization, world exports were at a record 111.7 million bags last year, with Brazilian shipments rising 15% to 36.3 million.
Related: Agriculture ETF Rally Looks to Change Laggard Trend
JO, like other commodities products, is benefiting from the slumping U.S. dollar. However, some believe the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: UUP), which tracks the price movement of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, is poised to rebound. That could make commodities ETFs of all varieties vulnerable to some downside.
“Both large and small speculators are currently holding a net-long position in Coffee futures according to the most recent Commitment of Traders report. As of the reporting period ending October 11, the combined speculative position totaled 47,106 contracts,” adds Options Express.
For more information on the coffee market, visit our coffee category.