The inflation story has been one of the market’s key narratives this year. Investors, advisors, and all kinds of market watchers have been watching each data drop for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The latest CPI print is no exception, another data point that invites scrutiny from those trying to predict further hikes or an eventual pause. VettaFi financial futurist Dave Nadig sat down with Corbu LLC managing director Sam Rines for a short discussion.
The pair explored whether the current data sets driving the inflation debate really explain the reality of inflation on the ground. Specifically, the duo spoke about shelter versus services data, wage-related data, as well as broader items about the labor force itself.
Rines started at Corbu in January 2022, having spent the four prior years as chief economist at Avalon Investment & Advisory in Houston. He worked for nearly four years before that at Cilton Capital Management as an economist and portfolio manager. Rines is the author of “After Normal: Making Sense of the Global Economy,” as well as the regular email newsletter PolyMacro.
CPI Print Talk
0:25: The CPI Print – Does it matter?
1:00: What are the right data sets when looking at inflation?
1:45: Would different data have changed the Fed’s response to inflation?
2:30: What can investors take away from shelter vs. services inflation data?
2:45: Reading the dot plots for the rest of 2023 and into 2024
3:30: Are you still bullish about the labor market despite downward revisions?
4:00: Unemployment up as higher wages pulling workers back into the market
4:45: Cracker Barrel’s wage growth projections
5:15: Will the labor force get enough bodies and enough wage pressure to normalize the labor market?
5:30: Corporate earnings to lean on wage moderation?
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