The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) could be giving hints as to where the stock market could be headed next in the coming months. After data released showed that GDP contracted over 30% during the second quarter, equities have roared back, but the high yield market could hold the key to the next breakout.
At least that’s one corner of the capital markets that Miller Tabak chief market strategist Matt Maley is watching, according to a recent CNBC report. With the central bank stepping in to purchase high yield exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and individual bonds, high yield has been anything, but a junk performer.
“I’m really looking at the high-yield market, believe it or not,” Maley told CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “I’m kind of looking for a bit of a pullback in August. But after that takes place, I’m really watching the high-yield market because it’s held up very, very well even when we’ve had downturns for a few days.”
HYG moved up 4% during the month of July and per the CNBC report, the fund “finally pulled above its 200-day moving average. That is the key resistance for the high yield market, for this ETF, and it’s also getting just above the top end of the sideways range it has been in for two months now, above $85.”
“It might pull back a little bit if the stock market sees a little bit of a pullback, but if you can see the HYG break meaningfully above that $85 level, this does mark a good leading indicator for the stock markets many times in the past. So that would be a very bullish sign that the stock market is going to go back up and test those all-time highs rather soon,” said Maley.
Another fund to look at is the FlexShares High Yield Value-Scored Bond Index Fund (HYGV). The fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Northern Trust High Yield Value-Scored US Corporate Bond IndexSM.
The index reflects the performance of a broad universe of U.S.-dollar denominated high yield corporate bonds that seeks a higher total return than the overall high yield corporate bond market, as represented by the Northern Trust High Yield US Corporate Bond IndexSM. The fund generally will invest under normal circumstances at least 80% of its total assets (exclusive of collateral held from securities lending) in the securities of its index.
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