With the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 3,000 points in Monday’s forgettable trading session, safety is certainly the order of the day, which could bolster gold’s price into the $2,000 per ounce level, according to Australian bank ANZ.
In a report, ANZ bank analysts view gold as undervalued and could touch the $2,000 price mark by the second quarter before eventually leveling off. The panic selling in the equities market is fueling a flight to safe haven assets like precious metals, and gold has been the primary beneficiary thus far.
“Our gold-valuation model suggests current spot prices are actually slightly undervalued. Moreover, while net-long investor positioning is reaching record levels, technically it doesn’t look overbought,” AZ Bank analysts said via a Kitco report. “If we plug in conservative estimates of inflation, interest rates, and USD, the near-term valuation looks even higher.”
With the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates to zero percent, cash might be king, but gold is certainly vying for that crown as a more suitable safe-haven asset.
“This leaves real interest rates in negative territory, creating a favorable backdrop for non-yield gold investments,” the analysts said. “Lower is clearly possible in the current circumstances, but we think the market has priced in a lot of bad news.”
The effects of the coronavirus are no doubt weighing on the minds of investors. Likewise, the central bank responded in tow by bringing rates down to zilch and dumping an epic $700 billion worth into quantitative its easing program.
“Synchronous central-bank rate cuts are the key to supporting gold investment demand. This has significantly raised the probability of gold breaking above USD2,000/oz,” the analysts noted further.
Gold Price in US Dollars data by YCharts
Per a CNBC report, the coronavirus effects have affected “at least 180,000 people and killing more than 7,000, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. There are now more than 4,200 cases of COVID-19 and at least 74 deaths in the U.S. alone, Johns Hopkins’ data shows.”
Investors looking to get gold exposure can look at funds like SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) and the SPDR Gold MiniShares (NYSEArca: GLDM). Precious metals like gold offer investors an alternative to diversify their holdings, and like other commodities, gold will march to the beat of its own drum compared to the broader market.
Traders looking for leverage can use funds like the Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (NYSEArca: NUGT), VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (NYSEArca: GDX) and the Direxion Daily Jr Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (NYSEArca: JNUG).
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