One signal, in particular, would be the tightening of Federal Reserve policy. Following the fourth and final rate hike of 2018, the central bank hinted at just that–two rate hikes in 2019 as opposed to the initial three–according to Bockvar, this could mean a recession is looming
“Recessions happen like night follows day,” said Boockvar. “Typically, recessions happen when the Fed tightens policy. And, I just find it hard to believe that we’re not going to go into another recession.”
Bockvar warns that even a trigger event like the United States and China agreeing to a permanent trade deal won’t be enough to save the economy.
“The question in 2019 is: let’s say things get better. Markets recover. The economy is OK. We have a (trade) deal with China,” Bockvar said. “Does that mean Powell is back in the game, and he wants to raise two more times?”
“If he is data dependent and the data gets better, well, then he’ll continue to raise,” Boockvar added.
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