The chief economist for Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Jan Hatzius, believes that the global economy may have already bottomed out, according to recent article in Bloomberg.

In a recent note, Hatzius and colleague Sven Jari Stehn wrote, “some green shoots are emerging that suggest that sequential growth will pick up from here,” adding that Goldman expects:

  • upside on risk assets, albeit probably at lower levels as “markets have become ‘more sanguine on recession;’ “
  • bond yields to rise;
  • continued strength in the dollar, “given a dovish Fed and expectation for a pickup in global growth;”
  • modest growth in oil over the next 2 to 3 months, but a “more bearish outlook for the remainder of the year.”
  • the outlook for a pickup in the U.S. is strongest, as the “drag from a tightening of financial conditions eases.”

The article also reports that Goldman sees “tentative signs of a turnaround in Chinese growth:”

The note expressed concern about weakness in European economies and has “pushed back its expectations for the first ECB hike from late-2019 to mid-2020,” according to the article. Regarding the Fed, Goldman believes that “prospects for moves in the next 6 to 9 months have fallen, and an increase toward the end of the year would require a rebound in both growth and core inflation.”

The article points out that some executives, including JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, have expressed concern. While Dimon is not expecting a recession, in the bank’s annual presentation to investors he said, “We’re simply pointing out that we are very conscious about the risks we bear.”

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