Venerated Voices™ 2023 Rankings

Among individual commentators, the most-widely read was Anne Walsh of Guggenheim Investments. In second place was John Hussman of Hussman Funds followed by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics in third place.

The most-widely read commentary in 2023, published on August 15, was Credit is the Next Shoe to Drop by Anne Walsh of Guggenheim Investments. In her interview with Bloomberg TV, Walsh shared her insights on the economic landscape, focusing on inflation and credit risks. She emphasized that while inflation was expected to decrease, its trajectory would not be straightforward, with labor market wages playing a pivotal role. Moreover, Walsh raised a crucial point that the market’s fixation on interest rates may have overshadowed looming credit risks. She referred to as “the next shoe to drop.” Walsh went on to highlight that companies and investors holding substantial cash reserves are better positioned to navigate economic challenges. But the presence of idiosyncratic, one-off credit risks remains a concern, potentially leading to defaults and delinquencies. In terms of portfolio positioning, She advised that high-grade credit markets offer relative stability and present opportunities in structured credit:

In the shorter run, I think the market is not anticipating the next shoe to drop, and that’s credit. And the concerns with regards to margins and pressures and a recessionary cycle, I think we have to get through that first before getting to the good stuff at the end of this story.

Japan Is On The Rise took second place, written by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust and published on July 18. Tannenbaum began by characterizing Japan as a former global economic leader that has experienced decades of stagnation and decline. But he said Japan is “on the rise.” He notes it is showing signs of improvement, including strong economic growth and a significant stock market rebound. Furthermore, he highlighted how the pandemic played a surprising role in this turnaround. That’s because supply chain disruptions and labor shortages led to wage increases and higher prices, effectively countering deflation. Despite ongoing challenges, Tannenbaum suggested the prevailing sentiment surrounding Japan’s economy is optimistic.