2023 has thrown many conflicting narratives and data points at market watchers. The Fed, even, seems beguiled by the manner in which its rate hikes have not yet produced its desired results. So how should investors and advisors look at econ data points? From labor to housing and mortgages to inflation, market watchers are looking for the most informative data points.
In a wide-ranging discussion en route to the Camp Kotok financial industry gathering, VettaFi financial futurist Dave Nadig, NewEdge CIO Cameron Dawson, and Ritholtz Wealth Management co-founder and CIO Barry Ritholtz discussed the econ data points they’re watching. The trio not only discussed the data they were seeing but also how best to use and understand data points writ large.
Ritholtz has served as chairman and CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management since 2013. Prior to that, he served as CEO of Fusion IQ for six years. He has also worked as a podcast host and columnist at Bloomberg. Dawson joined New Edge in 2022, following time at Fieldpoint Private and Bank of America. Dawson covered large-cap industrial equities for the latter’s investment solutions group chief investment office.
2023’s Econ Data Points Discussion
1:00: What data do we believe?
2:00: The value of models: their inputs and outputs
3:45: Underrated factors behind labor tightness
5:00: Is a painful recession possible with near-full employment?
6:00: Is econ data capturing worker frustration and moving jobs en masse, and how?
6:45: The true nature of small business formation numbers
8:00: Delayed retirement from the Great Financial Crisis?
9:00: Long COVID measurements and impact on the economy
10:00: Income recessions vs. debt-to-income balance sheet recessions
11:00: “Golden Handcuff” of low-rate mortgages
11:45: The long tail and unintended consequences of QE in housing
13:00: U.S. uniqueness of the 30-year fixed rate mortgage
14:15: What would’ve happened if Fed responded more quickly to early 21’ inflation data?
16:00: Rethinking how restrictive rate hikes are in a termed-out debt economy
16:45: Companies earning more on cash than paying out in interest – limit CapEx?
17:45: SVB and other bank issues – size or rapidity of rate hikes the culprit?
19:15: The average duration extending of the AGG
19:45: Time to push out on duration?
21:00: Recent low in the spread between investment-grade and high yield debt
22:00: On private credit
24:00: On BREIT and its dropping gate
25:30: Office REITs popping over the last month
26:30: IPOs and meme stocks soaring — econ data points
28:00: Is a recovery in asset prices the start of a new economic cycle, or just a relief rally late cycle?
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