“U.S. oil production may hit an all-time high in 2018 despite prices at half of 2014 levels,” Nitesh Shah, Director of Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities, and Maxwell Gold, Director of Investment Strategy at ETF Securities, said in a note, pointing to expansions in shale oil from the Permian Basin and rising efficiency in off-shore oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Related: Energy ETFs Should Respond to Oil Bounce

Investors shouldn’t forget about the demand side either, especially with a growing global economy. Citigroup projects a greater likelihood of persistent shortage of oil than a big jump in supply over the coming quarters. Ed Morse, global head of commodities at the bank, argued that a handful of OPEC members might already be pumping at maximum capacity already, and due to weak investment in exploration and development, there is a greater risk of a market squeeze once demand picks up, especially from a growing Chinese economy.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund tries to reflect the performance of major oil companies in the S&P 500, including big integrated energy companies and other oil services stocks like Exxon Mobil 23.2%, Chevron Corp. 17.1%, Schlumberger 7.4%, ConocoPhillips 4.7% and EOG Resources.

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