“Seasonality has been important this year. April is a weak month for the dollar. May is a strong month. That’s exactly what played out. June happens to be another weak month,” Ciana said. “What we think is happening right now is the dollar index is positioned to retrace about a third to maybe half of the uptrend that we’ve seen from the April lows there. If that occurs, we would see the dollar index come right into the 200-day moving average.”

UUP currently resides 2.85% above its 200-day moving average and 7% above its 52-week low.

Traders considering a bearish position on the dollar can consider the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSEArca: UDN), an inverse though not leveraged bet against the greenback.

For more information on the USD, visit our U.S. dollar category.