“The real economy is doing well,” said Citigroup Chief Financial Officer John Gerspach. “Then you’ve got what I’ll call the financial economy…I think there’s a good deal of concern around the world as to how do we exit this period of quantitative easing,” he said, referring to the Federal Reserve’s move to raise rates and reduce the availability of easy credit.
“What remains to be seen is whether the financial economy has an impact on the real economy in 2019,” Gerspach added.
Thus far in January, the markets have rebounded off a December’s doldrums, but some analysts question whether it’s sustainable moving forward.
“We are chalking up the S&P 500’s YTD gain of 3.6% primarily to the cessation of tax loss selling in the New Year,” said DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas. “That list of the biggest S&P 500 losers in 2018 we published last month is up an average of 9.5% YTD, a data point which supports this idea.”
“From now on, US stocks will have to earn further gains. Earnings season kicks off this week, the market’s first challenge. US/China trade will likely have to wait for Davos, which is 9 days away,” Colas added.
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