Despite a pullback today amid bullishness in stocks, positive sentiment for gold continues to expand, with another U.S. bank prognosticating all-time-highs, even as the shiny metal grapples with gaining momentum in the short term.
In a report published last week, commodity analysts at Citi said that they forecast gold at $2,000 an ounce in the medium term. The analysts noted they are bullish on gold as investor demand is predicted to remain robust amid a global environment of low to negative interest rates.
although gold dropped roughly $75 an ounce over the last week, from $1775.80 to $1700 today, in its revised forecast, Citi sees gold prices averaging $1,715 an ounce in the second half of 2020, and averaging $1,925 in 2021.
Although Citi expects to see loftier prices by next year, analysts are not projecting a significant breakout.
“We think prices are more likely to make a slow grind higher, but generally hold a $1,600-1,700 handle, rather than quickly spike to the $1,850-1,950 area,” the analysts said.
Looking at the technicals, Citi observes key resistance at $1,800 an ounce and meaningful support between $1,682 and $1,720 an ounce, while as of 330pm EST gold prices are trading just off their lows at $1702.
Gold is trading “in a scenario where investors are looking for fresh stimuli to move markets. The risk-on approach seen on stocks in the last few days pulled down the price,” said Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst at ActivTrades, in a note.
With an ongoing environment of low to negative interest rates, Citi noted that broadening geopolitical stress between the U.S. and China and continued uncertainty related to the economic recovery that has surrounded this coronavirus pandemic since early this year, will bolster safe-haven demand for gold.
In addition to gold however, Citi is looking for higher silver prices in the second half of the year, calling for prices to reach $22 an ounce in the third quarter.
Silver has seen a robust breakout recently, holding above $17, as investor demand heightened noticeably last week, urging prices to their highest level since late February. Some commodity analysts believe prospects for silver’s future will increase even further industrial demand develops when countries begin to mitigate lockdown restrictions initiated months ago to attempt to stem the spread of Covid-19.
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