Does the "January Barometer" hold any meaning for exchange traded funds (ETFs)? The barometer, according to Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader Almanac, suggests that the performance of the S&P 500 during this month is indicative of what the market’s performance will be the rest of the year. Does this parallel the performance for the movement of ETF indexes as well?
Gary Gordon for ETF Expert reports that in January 2007, the S&P gained 1.4%. The index ended at 3.5% for the year. Nonetheless, the 3.5% is well short of the double digit percentage expected, and short-term U.S. Treasuries blew past the S&P.
ETF indexes that moved noticeably higher were:
- Market Vectors Global Agribusiness (MOO), 14% gain for the month of December
- iPath Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index (DJP), 4.2% in December
- iShares Global Infrastructure Fund (IGF), gained 1% in the afternoon of New Year’s Eve
Watch the S&P this month and then see what it does for the rest of the year. It could be interesting.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.