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Venezuela is another OPEC member where output is falling in dramatic fashion.

“Venezuelan output in September was 700 mbpd below its OPEC quota as the economic and political crisis continues to cripple the country’s oil industry,” according to Fitch. “We forecast that production declines in Iran and Venezuela may reach 2 mmbpd, or more. This is about the same as our estimate of maximum global spare capacity at the beginning of the year, mostly in OPEC countries and Russia. Prices might come down if OPEC+ producers manage to make up for the lost volumes.”

Next year, global oil supply is expected to be more balanced thanks in large part to increased U.S. shale output, which could lead to lower prices.

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