“A lot of people are saying the Trump trade is over, but I think the rally is predicated on fundamentals, not on Donald Trump, ” Jeff Schulze, investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, told the Wall Street Journal.
However, traders grew cautious toward the end of the first quarter, with listless trading on the last day, as many looked to lofty valuations and doubts over Trump’s ability to deliver on his promises.
“We’re really only about 1 percent below the record high again, so valuations are starting to creep higher,” Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab & Co Inc, told Reuters. “If earnings reports come in as expected, then they will catch up with the valuations, if they don’t then I think the market will start to pull back.”
According to Thomson Reuters, first-quarter S&P 500 earnings are projected to rise 10.1%. The benchmark index is now trading at around 18 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, compared to the long-term average of 15.
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