“Turkey’s response to its ongoing economic forces of negative growth, high unemployment, high inflation, and sustained capital outflows has been to prioritize the growth and employment elements through a loose monetary policy. This has yielded negative interest rates in real terms and has consequently supported a long position in Turkish equities by dropping the discount rates in the market,” according to a Seeking Alpha analysis of the Turkish economy.
Some market participants believe political risk in Turkey exceeds that of other emerging markets, meaning it is too soon for investors to consider supposed bargains in Turkish stocks. Additionally, there are lingering concerns the country could be tagged with another credit downgrade this year.
Furthermore, the increased security risks also pressured investors’ outlook, notably the Islamic State claimed that the New Year’s attack at the Reina nightclub shortly after Istanbul rang in the new year.
“Turkey has historically been a very volatile economy, diving to under (negative)-10% growth during the dot-com bust and financial crisis and having more than 5% year-to-year changes during more stable periods. Over the next decade a 3%-4% real growth rate is likely more realistic and doable with the country’s young demographics (average age of 31), increasing middle class, and broad number of trade partnerships,” according to Seeking Alpha.
For more stories on the lone Turkey ETF, visit our Turkey category.