The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSEArca: TUR), one of this year’s most controversial and volatile single-country emerging markets exchange traded funds, could encounter difficulty in its efforts to find more upside and less volatility.
In July, Turkish stocks and TUR tumbled following a failed coup. Turkish markets plummeted on concerns of the implications of the ensuing political turbulence after a failed coup d’etat attempt from the military branch.
While Erodgan’s swift crackdown after the coup offers stability of sorts, the lingering uncertainty will continue to weigh on investment confidence, writes Swaha Pattanaik for Reuters. Looking ahead, Turkish growth could slow in the wake of the coup attempt. Consumer and business confidence, along with tourism revenue, will likely come under pressure.
SEE MORE: Turkey ETF Tumbles Following Failed Coup
After the coup, the Turkish government declared a three-month state of emergency to in response to the failed coup. The administration is pursuing those accused of being behind the coup and has arrested thousands of army officers, judges, teachers and prosecutors.
Some market participants believe political risk in Turkey exceeds that of other emerging markets, meaning it is too soon for investors to consider supposed bargains in Turkish stocks.
“With political risk now exceeding South Africa and Brazil, investors should be wary of looking for bargains too early, according to Abbas Ameli-Renani of Amundi Asset Management,” reports Bloomberg.
[related_stories]In August, Fitch Ratings did not downgrade the country’s sovereign credit rating. Fitch affirmed its rating on Turkey’s credit to BBB-, the lowest investment grade, but the ratings agency lowered its outlook to negative.
S&P Global Ratings, though, already lowered the country’s’ credit rating to two steps below investment-grade and warned that increased political uncertainty could continue to push off investors and undermine fiscal management.
SEE MORE: Assessing the Lone Turkey ETF as it Tries to Rebound
“Investors are finding it increasingly hard to ignore Turkey’s political strife, even though many have become open to accepting more volatility to boost returns. More than 100,000 people have been fired, suspended or detained since the nation declared a state of emergency in July,” according to Bloomberg.
For more information on the Turkish markets, visit our Turkey category.
iShares MSCI Turkey ETF
