By creating this nominal GDP forecast, we think that it is possible to create reliable expectations for U.S. economic activity, revenues, and earnings over the long-term. Obviously, short-term events can derail the economy’s near-term potential or accelerate revenue and earnings growth, but we think longer-term economic growth is rooted in these factors. Importantly, these factors suggest a positive environment for slow, but steady growth ahead.

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None of these inputs to economic growth (labor force and productivity growth rates, along with inflation), corporate revenues, and earnings in aggregate are directly and significantly impacted by a presidential administration. Granted, an administration may have significant influence on specific industries through various policy measures (e.g. regulations or subsidies), but, in aggregate, what drives the U.S. economy is the stable growth rate of our labor force and productivity of the private sector. It is these factors that should be the areas of focus for broad equity market investors.

Unlike a centrally planned economy, such as China, these factors are not driven by the president. Through the wisdom of our forefathers, our system of checks and balances prevents any president from wielding too much power. The upward bias to our economy and our markets are a result of our democracy and capitalism. This has held true despite many different administrations, both republican and democratic, with very divergent economic and political policies.


Is it different this time? Yes, the candidates are different. Still, the dominant factors that drive our economy and markets are unchanged regardless of presidential administration. The demographic, productivity, and inflationary trends that drive our economy and financial markets are well entrenched. These trends indicate slow, but steady growth ahead and a positive environment for equity market investors with appropriate time horizons.

Gary Stringer is the CIO, Kim Escue is a Senior Portfolio Manager, and Chad Keller is the COO and CCO at Stringer Asset Management, a participant in the ETF Strategist Channel.


Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies explained are Stringer Asset Management LLC’s as of the date of publication. They are considered to be accurate at the time of writing, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect to error or omission is accepted. They are subject to change without reference or notification. The views contained herein are not be taken as an advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment and the material should not be relied upon as containing sufficient information to support an investment decision. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance and yield may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance quoted.

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