The United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, and the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO), which tracks Brent crude oil futures, are each up more than 4% over the past month. That could be just the start of more gains for the oil exchange traded products as some market observers see more upside on the way for crude.
Oil is also likely to get some help from now dwindling bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming months. Raising interest rates would likely boost the dollar, in turn pressuring dollar-denominated commodities such as oil.
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Some energy market observers are clear in their assessments and they see oil trading higher in the coming months. Some professional traders do not see the current oil bear market lasting very long. Still, some concerned oil market participants believe oil is rallying without strong fundamental cause. A case can be made that oil’s rally is defying still troubling supply dynamics and tepid demand.
Conversely, many traders remain bearish over the short-term, betting on weakening seasonal trends. Money managers increased wagers on declines in oil prices to a record on increasing U.S. inventories and ahead of a seasonal refinery maintenance that will curb crude demand – futures have dipped in each of the past five Septembers, reports Mark Shenk for Bloomberg.
[related_stories]“RBC Capital Markets’ global head of commodity strategy, Helima Croft, predicts that the commodity will rise as high as $60 in the year ahead,” reports CNBC.
Other oil traders believe 2017 will be fertile ground for an oil rally. While production has declined in the U.S., recently rebounding oil prices are encouraging exploration and production companies to revisit spending plans with some increasing capital expenditures. That has some oil market observers concerned about a rising rig count and the subsequent impact on crude prices.
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“Last month, the International Energy Agency said that global crude supplies were outstripping demand. However, Croft maintains that the oil oversupply looks to be easing, and that the persistence of the global glut has potentially been overblown. In a recent note, she wrote that ‘acute downside risks to the oil market are visible and are likely already mostly priced in,’” reports CNBC.
For more information on the crude oil market, visit our oil category.
United States Oil Fund
