The equities market has rebounded off the February lows, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEArca: SPY) up 1.7% year-to-date. Meanwhile, the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSEArca: DBC), which tracks a basket of commodities, has rallied 9.1% so far this year.
Others argue that the dollar strengthens in May as U.S. economic data typically turns around this time of the year, which would support U.S. assets.
“If the U.S. data starts improving from here, as we would expect, and ultimately the Fed is in a position to hike rates in June, then you would think that May could be another month of stock, commodity underperformance and dollar outperformance,” Valentin Marinov, head of Group-of-10 foreign-exchange strategy at Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment-banking unit, told Bloomberg.
Looking at the UUP chart below, technical analysts may also argue that the greenback looks oversold. UUP’s relative strength index, a technical momentum indicator, was showing a 27.95 reading, an indication that that the asset may be oversold and likely undervalued.
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PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund