Greek markets and country-specific exchange traded funds (ETFs) advanced Wednesday on bets that banks could surge if Greece and creditors can come to an accord on new bailouts and debt relief.
Greek equities were bucking the broader down trend Wednesday, with the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSEArca: GREK) up 3.0%. Nevertheless, GREK is still down 4.9% year-to-date.
The emerging European market rallied after Morgan Stanley upgraded Greek bank stocks to “overweight,” projecting the sector could rise 90% from current levels, reports Vikram Subheder for Reuters.
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GREK, which tracks the MSCI All Greece Select 25/50 Index, also includes a hefty 38.9% tilt toward the financial sector, with Alpha Bank 14.4%, Piraeus Bank 6.8%, National Bank of Greece 6.5% and Eurobank Ergasias 5.6% among its top holdings.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Greece’s bank sector due to the area’s cheap valuations that did not reflect the compression in bond yields spreads that would result from a deal with Athens’ lenders.
[related_stories]The market is currently overly pessimistic on the banks’ return on equity targets.
If Greek bonds passed muster, Athens’ debt would be eligible for the European Central Bank’s expanded bond purchasing program; the country’s capital controls may be lifted and Greece would be on its way toward an eventual economic recovery, according to Morgan Stanley.
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“It won’t be easy, and it’s likely to be far from smooth,” Morgan Stanley analysts warned, but they see passing the review as the most likely outcome.
International creditors have asked Greece to prepare additional savings measures that would be passed into law as a type of last resort to make sure the country hits its fiscal targets.
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Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF