Like many commodities exchange traded products, the United States Gasoline Fund (NYSEArca: UGA) has had a rough year. And like many commodities ETFs and ETNs, UGA could be facing more problems heading into 2016.
ETFs, like UGA, that track front month contracts benefit from backwardation as they roll front month contracts to avoid physical delivery of the commodity. When the contract is about to expire, UGA sells the futures contract and buys a cheaper later-dated contract in a backwardated market at a profit. [How Contango Can Affect Your Commodity ETF]
Looking ahead, oil observers expect the supply and demand dynamic to become more balanced in 2016. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also projected rising demand for oil this year and the next, which could “imply an improvement toward a more balanced market.” [Oil ETFs Look to Rally]
Evercore ISI’s head of technical analysis Rich Ross told CNBC the chart for gasoline futures is “broken,” adding “We’re hovering just above the $1 level, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it broke below that key psychological support level and retest the 2008 and 2009 lows.”
The Organization of Petroleum Countries has kept up production to pressure high-cost rivals, such as the developing U.S. shale oil producers. The International Energy Agency expects it will take several years before OPEC can effectively price out high-cost producers. [Oil ETFs Face World-Record Supply Glut]