After the recent retreat in the energy market, contrarian investors may see an opportunity in crude oil and the commodity-related exchange traded funds.
Over the past month, the United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO), which tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, plunged 15.9% and United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO) declined 11.2%. Moreover, the recent selling pressure has pushed down the relative strength index of the oil ETFs, with the technical momentum indicator pointing to an undervalued market.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are now trading around $50.2 per barrel while Brent crude oil futures are hovering around $56.8 per barrel.
Some investment banks, though, are growing more bullish on the oil outlook for the rest of the year. For example, JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) projects Brent crude oil to rise to $65 per barrel in the third quarter and $67 per barrel in the fourth, reports Arjun Kharpal for CNBC.
“We view July and August as the most likely time within 3Q 2015 when crude markets should be at their tightest, given peak summer demand for gasoline and the fact that refinery crude runs are forecast to peak in August,” JP Morgan said in a note.
Barclays analysts anticipate Brent to reach $61 per barrel in the third quarter and $66 per barrel in the fourth. Nevertheless, the bank warned of ongoing issues that may still cause short-term volatility, which contributed to their slightly lower forecast.
“Product stock building could lead to weak refinery margins over H2 2015, in our view, especially since rising macroeconomic risks, particularly out of China, could limit upside surprises in global oil demand growth,” Barclays analysts said. “If these bearish risks are realized, they are more likely to cause prices to remain near current levels than push prices lower for a sustained period of time.”