The U.S. dollar is depreciating against foreign currencies on Federal Reserve rate expectations, but the USD and currency-related exchange traded funds still remain a long-term play.
Over the past month, the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: UUP), which tracks the price movement of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, has declined 5.0%. Additionally, the actively managed WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (NYSEArca: USDU), which tracks the USD against a broader basket of developed and emerging market currencies, has dipped 3.5%. [Dollar ETFs Experience Worst Run in Almost Two Years]
The Dollar Index is now trading at around 93.7 after tracking above 100 early March, according to Bloomberg data.
However, fund managers still believe the U.S. dollar has more room to run, especially against the euro currency, reports Jenny Cosgrave for CNBC.
Many are pointing to the diverging monetary policies between the U.S. Federal Reserve and overseas central banks. For instance, the European Central Bank is just starting its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, the Fed is cogitating on tightening its monetary policy down the line, which should diminish the supply of money sloshing around the economy and strengthen the USD.
Additionally, currencies tend to strengthen or weaken in long cycles, and we are just at the beginning of a strengthening cycle. Historically, the dollar moves over three- to four-year cycles, appreciating 20% to 30%. The dollar has gained 15% against a number of foreign currencies, so there is more room to run, according to PIMCO’s chief investment officer of real return and asset allocation, Mihir Worah.