Gold exchange traded funds traded lower Wednesday in anticipation of the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, but ETFs such as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) trimmed losses even after the Fed said it can be “patient” in its approach to raising interest rates.
Still, the U.S. central bank gave no sign it is wavering from its plan to boost rates later this year, which many market observers see as negative for gold and positive for the already strong U.S. dollar. Dueling outlooks for gold and the related ETFs come just as the yellow metal has been making strides toward erasing two years of disappointment.
GLD is up 8.4% this year, but has shed 1.3% over the past week. The ETF has added $1.23 billion in new assets, good for the second-best among all ETFs behind only theVanguard 500 Index (NYSEArca: VOO). Last year, GLD fell 2% and shed $3.2 billion in assets. [Gold ETFs in Style Again]
Although Wall Street banks are sounding less-than-enthusiastic tones on gold, speculators are buying up bullion.
Speculative investors bought gold for a fourth successive week at a “strong pace” upping long positions. Silver has also been bought for close to 12 weeks, but positioning remains “far from stretched”, according to data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, reports Jenny Cosgrave for CNBC.
On Monday, J.P. Morgan said it expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June, which would be bearish for gold. The bank expects bullion to retreat to $1,180 per ounce by the third quarter, $100 below where it currently resides. Goldman Sachs also has a bearish view on gold for the third quarter and the bank lowered its 2016 estimate on the yellow metal to $1,089 per ounce, according to Barron’s.
Gold is also facing a critical technical test that could go a long way in determining the yellow metal’s near-term outlook.
“Gold is now testing the underside of an old 10-year support line, now as resistance. This line is also being joined by another resistance line, at current price levels. The ‘X’ marks the spot that looks to be VERY important for the future of long-term gold prices. Keep a close eye on what happens here because it could determine if Gold gets out of its three year downward funk or its gets a breath of fresh air on a breakout,” said Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions.
Chart Courtesy: Kimble Charting Solutions
Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.