Over the past 90 days, the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca: SLV) and the ETFS Physical Silver Shares (NYSEArca: SIVR) are off 15.6%, a decline that is more than twice as bad as the 6.3% drop for the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) over the same period.
November has been more kind to precious metals exchange traded funds, including silver ETFs, as SLV and SIVR are up an average of 1.8%. While silver ETFs are still highly damaged (SLV and SIVR each reside 15% below their 200-day moving averages, the November bullishness, albeit slight, could be the start of a situation worth monitoring. [Caution Needed With Silver ETFs]
“Silver is hitting dual line support, at the same time it is hitting the 23% Fibonacci support off the move from $3 to $50 and looks to be creating a monthly bullish wick at this key price zone,” said Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions. As Kimble notes, bullish wicks can signal buying opportunities.
Silver’s recent pop, though modest could also be an important sign that sellers are capitulating on what has been a derided asset class over the past several years.
“Silver has lost about two-thirds of its value in the past three years. Is the bottom in place? Too soon to tell. This is a monthly chart, so we won’t know the results how how this pattern plays out until the end of the month,” adds Kimble.
Although silver has fallen out of favor, its status as a cheaper alternative to gold has fueled inflows to ETFs like SLV, predominantly from retail investors. For the week ended Nov. 20, SLV added $39 million in new assets. Year-to-date, investors have added over $559 million to SLV while pulling more than $2.8 billion from GLD. [Investors Remain Loyal to Silver ETFs]
A legitimate silver rally would also be efficacious for downtrodden silver miners ETFs. Over the past three months, the Global X Silvers Miners ETF (NYSEArca: SIL) and the PureFunds ISE Junior Silver Small Cap Miners/Explorers ETF (NYSEArca: SILJ) are down an average of 27.5%. Only three ETFs, with SILJ being one, have performed worse than SIL over that period.