iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWI)
Odds to win: 25/1
ETF YTD: Up 17.8%
Comment: EWI has been of the beneficiaries of the resurgence by and inflows to equities in the PIIGS nations. Italy has the same odds as England of winning the World Cup, though those numbers could change in a few days as the two nations face-off on Saturday in the first match for both.
Although Italian stocks are still discounted compared to their U.K., German and Swiss counterparts, EWI has issues to contend with. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s government is tackling a $2.9 trillion deficit, or 133.6% of 2014 GDP. The administration is seeking to cut spending and help fund tax cuts for low-income workers. Italy’s government estimates that the economy will expand 0.8% this year, despite contracting 0.1% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the S&P expects GDP growth to average 0.9% between 2014 and 2016. [Weak Growth Prospects Could Weigh on Italy ETF]