Riding the wave of improved sentiment toward emerging markets and relief over the outcome of municipal elections, the Turkey exchange traded fund is testing its long-term trend line.
The iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSEArca: TUR) has jumped 23.0% over the past month. The ETF now trades about 1.4% above its 200-day exponential moving average.
“The unwinding of the ‘buy developed/sell emerging’ trade that started on March 25 is continuing for the third week in a row,” TEB Invest-BNP Paribas strategist Isik Okte said in a Gulf Times article. “Lira-denominated assets are benefiting from foreign inflows as are all emerging markets.”
Turkish stocks recently touched a 2014 high. The Borsa Instanbul 100 Index is now up 8.1% year-to-date, but the benchmark index was down 2.1% Wednesday while TUR dipped 2.4%.
“After this major run-up, it won’t be a big surprise if investors take some profits off the table,” Okte added.
Investors pulled out of Turkey late 2013, following corruption charges and political uncertainty in the run-up to elections. However, political tensions have eased after a strong showing by Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogen’s ruling AK Party in elections on March 30. [Turkey ETF Leads EM Sell-Off on New Act in Political Drama]
New economic data also shows that the economy is holding up surprisingly well, despite the political volatility.