With four gold and silver miners exchange traded funds found on the list of this year’s 10 best ETFs, envisioning further, significant upside for the group might be difficult.
The task is perhaps even more difficult when realizing that the “worst” of those four ETFs, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX), is up more than 22% year-to-date. An impressive in just a little over two months under any circumstances, but one that is even more so when remembering that gold miners ETFs were among last year’s worst performers. [A Positive View on Gold Miners]
Boosted by rising gold prices and diminishing global risk in some gold-rich countries, among other positive factors, mining ETFs are on the mend in a big way this year. The run to this point for GDX and rival funds may just be getting started.
“The 25% rally has pushed these mining index’s above their 200MA for the first time since 2012 and up against the top of their steep falling channels. A breakout from this channel would be the best news the miners have seen in a few years,” said Chris Kimble of Kimble Charting Solutions.
Kimble points out that the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU) and GDX are bumping up against resistance created by lengthy downward channels and that a break of those channels would be significant.
The $8.2 billion GDX does not track the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index. Rather, GDX tracks the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR), a modified cap-weighted index. That means the ETF is dominated by large-cap miners such as Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM). That trio represents a third of the ETF’s weight.
The bullish technical outlook for miners is buoyed by sound fundamentals. Last week saw the highest in flows across commodity ETPs in over a year. “Leading the trend were precious metal ETPs, which saw aggregate inflows of $206 million,” according to a research note by Nicholas Brooks, head of research and investment strategy, and Nitesh Shah associate director – research at ETF Securities. [Precious Metals Boost Commodities ETFs]
The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD), the world’s largest exchange traded fund backed by physical gold, saw its first month of inflows in over a year last month and physical demand remains brisk, particularly in China, which is now the world’s largest gold consumer. [Golden Month for Gold ETFs]
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF
ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post. Tom Lydon’s clients own shares of GLD.
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.