Large investment banks paint a dreary picture in the commodities space as rising supply and slowing demand depress prices this year. However, there are a couple of standout commodities and related exchange traded funds.
The commodities super cycle is reversing, with the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index, which tracks 24 commodities, declining for three straight quarters through December, Bloomberg reports. [Supply Glut, Low Demand Continue to Weigh on Commodity ETFs]
Specifically, copper, corn, sugar and coffee will see a surplus this year after a bull market pushed producers to build new mines and expand planting.
“Supply growth is still formidable across most commodities,” Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said in the article. “It will take some time for actual demand trends to start to overwhelm that increasing supply.”
Meanwhile, the global economic engine has been working below capacity and demand for raw materials remains muted.
“We are still at below-trend GDP growth, and typically in this environment you see weak commodity returns and low volatility,” Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs’ head of commodities research, said in the report. “The expectations are the U.S. grows near trend, but Europe won’t, and the emerging markets won’t. If the growth was above trend everywhere, we’d be jumping into commodities.”
Goldman Sachs Group warns that commodity prices could continue to fall 3% in 12 months, with precious metals falling 15%, agriculture declining 11%, industrial metals dipping 5%, livestock diminishing 3% and energy receding 1%.
Societe Generale SA has already advised clients to stay underweight agriculture, gold and silver this year.