The Japanese yen is one of the worst-performing developed market currencies, but the bulk of the losses were incurred in the first quarter and the first half of the second quarter.
The CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSEArca: FXY) started the year trading just over $112, but would sink below $95 in mid-May. By mid-June, the ETF was flirting with $104 as investors started doubting the efficacy of Abenomics while wondering if the Japanese currency had fallen too far too fast. [Japan ETF Rally Alive as Yen Weakens]
While the yen has weakened since June, USD/JPY has struggled to reclaim 100, putting year-end price targets from major global banks in the 103-105 range (and higher) in danger. There good news could be emerging for yen bears, including those that own the ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSEArca: YCS), the double-leveraged ETF play on USD/JPY.
“YCS specifically has seen a big volume uptick in the past couple days as the fund appears to be breaking out from a month long trading range while there is quite a bit of congestion with the 50 and 200 day MA levels at current price levels, and apparently bears are again lurking in the Japanese Yen,” according to Paul Weisbruch of Street One Financial. [Chart of the Day: Yen Bears]
Other market observers see opportunity in YCS as well.
“We are stalking a potential short entry in the Japanese yen through buying YCS an inversely correlated currency ETF. After several months of consolidation, the price action in YCS has tightened up considerably in recent weeks,” said Deron Wagner of Morpheus Trading Group.
YCS has indeed been consolidating for several weeks, trading in a tight range and having not traded above $64 in over a month, but the chart shows the ETF could be poised to breakout of a downward sloping triangle.
“On November 7, $YCS had a very wide-ranged decline, but the price immediately snapped back the following day. This ‘shakeout’ enabled the ETF to clear back near its high of the week. That price action caused a bullish reversal candlestick to form on the weekly chart (highlighted in yellow), and volume ticked higher as well,” notes Wagner. “Now, YCS is back above both its 10 and 40-week moving averages, as it pops its head above resistance of a 6-month downtrend line on increasing volume and with a bullish reversal pattern. A move above last week’s high should spark bullish momentum that causes YCS to rally towards its May 2013 high in the coming weeks.”
ProShares UltraShort Yen