Thursday was not a good day for the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEArca: GDX) as the largest gold miners ETF lost 4.3% on volume that was more than 25% above the daily average.
That left GDX with a gain of 2.8% for October. Not bad considering the ETF’s woes this year and the fact that October is often one of the worst months in which to own gold. And even with Thursday’s tumble, GDX finished October with a gain of 8.6%. More could be on the way. [Contrarian ETFs to go Against the Grain]
GDX “has been in pullback mode since late August, but recently broke the downtrend line of the consolidation (October 22), before stalling out at the 50-day moving average,” said Deron Wagner of Morpheus Trading Group. On Wednesday “GDX sold off sharply in the afternoon, but immediately bounced back after finding support at the 20-day exponential moving average.”
That could be a bullish sign for GDX, which has plunged 46.7% this year, a loss that is about twice as bad as some of the largest physically-backed gold ETFs.
Wagner argues that Wednesday’s sell-off in GDX perhaps eliminated some of the “weak hands” in the trade, “which had the effect of absorbing overhead supply. In turn, this should now make it easier for $GDX to move higher in the near-term.” [Gold Miners ETF: Catching a Falling Knife]
GDX currently resides 3.7% below its 50-day simple moving average and almost 18% below its simple 200-day moving average. With the ETF below its 200-day line, that means “GDX is a counter-trend buy setup (this is a short-term trade with reduced share size/risk) that seeks to take advantage of a bullish trend reversal,” said Wagoner.