Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Weak across the Board. Even Long-Levitating Future General Activity Index Falls Sharply.
Like the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey was mostly weak, which is consistent with our analysis of income tax withholdings and key credit indicators. We remain convinced the economy is in worse shape than Wall Street thinks.
The headline diffusion index of current activity fell for the second consecutive month, dropping to a six-month low of 6.5 in November from 19.8 in October. Forward-looking indices also declined. The new orders index dropped to a three-month low of 11.8 in November from 27.5 in October, while the unfilled orders index fell to a five-month low of -4.2 in November from 9.1 in October.
As in the New York area, manufacturers in the Philadelphia area are far more upbeat about the future than they are about current conditions, but even the long-buoyant outlook declined. The future general activity index fell to a three-month low of 45.8 in November from 58.2 in October.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
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