Emerging markets exchange traded funds have come storming back in recent weeks, but that does not mean the forecast is sunny for the entire group.
The iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF(NYSEArca: EIDO) and the Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (NYSEArca: IDX) are the primary ETFs tracking Southeast Asia’s largest economy and the two are off an average of 11% year-to-date. That loss has been significantly trimmed as the EIDO and IDX have gained an average of 18.5% since the start of September. [Indonesia ETF Bounces After Deep Sell-Off]
Some analysts still see risks ahead for Indonesia, a market that has been wracked by inflation, a widening current account deficit and a weak rupiah, this year’s worst-performing emerging markets currency.
“Higher subsidized fuel price, higher minimum wages, weakening of rupiah and higher interest rates are expected to pressure earnings growth in 2013-14. We expect earnings growth to reach +3% and +10% in 2013-14, respectively, lower than consensus estimates of +9% and +15%. Thus, consensus downward adjustments are likely,” Citigroup said of earnings expectations for Indonesian firms in a note obtained by Barron’s.
Even with the struggles of Indonesian stocks this year and that concerning outlook from Citi, EIDO and IDX holdings are not particularly cheap at a time when large developing economies such as China and Russia are home to some of the most heavily discounted stocks in the emerging world. [Indonesia ETFs Still Aren’t Cheap]