Critical structural reforms and budget cuts are still needed. While countries that have received financial aid from their neighbors– e.g. Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus — have strict reform targets to meet, larger economies such as France and Italy are also a cause for concern. For example, France has two more years to trim its budget deficit to meet Maastricht Treaty requirements and was expected to carry out far-reaching structural reforms. Yet proposed measures so far have fallen short of what policymakers expected and could spark fresh tension with Brussels. In addition, in Italy, a country dealing with high debt levels, a Senate vote, likely in October, on the possible expulsion of Silvio Berlusconi poses a significant threat to the stability of the ruling coalition and its austerity program.
Elsewhere, other Southern European countries – such as Portugal and Greece — need to implement reforms and austerity programs in order to secure their bailout packages. The next signpost to watch related to this issue comes on September 29 in Portugal. If the current governing party doesn’t do well in these elections, local pension reform and the current coalition government could be at risk. Then, in early October, the troika of international lenders (the EU, ECB and IMF) will review whether Greece’s fiscal reform is still on track enough for the country to receive its final loan instalment. It’s likely that there will be a debate on the restructuring of sovereign debt in Greece, and the prospect of official creditors taking a haircut over Greece could raise concerns about Cyprus and Portugal requiring similar restructurings.
Unfortunately, the resolution of these issues will likely be a long-term process complicated by political instability and voter fatigue with austerity. Reforms undertaken during a debt crisis are only viable if they have the necessary political backing. However reforms that disappoint a large part of the population are unlikely to be popular once the immediate threat of default or market pressure has disappeared, threatening the political power of those who implemented the reforms. In the meantime, improving growth and cheap valuations in Europe suggest investors may want to consider some exposure to eurozone equities.
Russ Koesterich, CFA, is the Chief Investment Strategist for BlackRock and iShares Chief Global Investment Strategist.