The largest ETF tracking long-term Treasury bonds has seen nearly $400 million move out the door the past month as yields have ticked higher in volatile trading.

Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions, and higher rates would send bond ETFs lower.

“In a world of uncertain economies and volatile share prices, it’s little wonder so many investors have fled lately to the relative security of fixed-income funds,” U.S. News & World Report notes.

“But there are risks with any investment, bond funds included. One big risk for bond-fund holders at the moment is that interest rates will rise,” it reported. “It might seem unlikely right now, with the economy stuck in low gear, but eventually rates are certain to rise from today’s rock-bottom levels. That will indicate a reviving economy but it could also hurt portfolios heavy on fixed-income assets.”

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TLT) has experienced net outflows of $393.7 million the past month, according to XTF.

The Treasury ETF hit an all-time high in July but has pulled back as yields rebound somewhat.

Technical analyst Chris Kimble at Kimble Charting Solutions sees a bearish head and shoulders topping pattern developing in the Treasury bond ETF. He also notes 75% of investors are bullish on bonds, according to Market Vane.

ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (NYSEArca: TBF) is an unleveraged, inverse ETF designed to rise with Treasury yields.

iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Full disclosure: Tom Lydon’s clients own TLT.

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of John Spence, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.

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