Guggenheim Partners’ chief investment officer says the three-decade rally in U.S. government bonds is drawing to a close and that interest rates will move higher in coming years.
“We’re coming out of a generational bull market, and I believe rates for Treasury securities have traded at their lows,” said Guggenheim CIO Scott Minerd in an interview with Fortune published this week. “Over the next three to five years, I expect rates to move up significantly.”
Rising rates would lead to lower prices for bonds and fixed-income ETFs. [Special Report: Navigating Higher Rates]
Guggenheim has a sizable ETF business following itsacquisitions of Rydex SGI and Claymore Group in recent years. Last month, a Guggenheim-led consortium cinched a deal to acquire the Los Angeles Dodgers for about $2.1 billion.
“The Fed’s policy has been to maintain very low mortgage rates to help clear the inventory in the housing sector. We expect the overhang in housing to be cleaned up by 2015,” Minerd told Fortune. “At that point the Fed will realize that inflation is becoming a problem and will begin to raise rates, and that’ll be the beginning of the generational bear market.”
U.S. Treasuries have been very kind to buy-and-hold investors over the past 30 years.
However, further gains are “limited,” the CIO said, so it makes sense for investors to move away from Treasuries — or even dump them altogether. [Short ETFs for Rising Interest Rates]