Low interest rates and easy monetary policies from central banks after the credit meltdown are among the factors helping to drive gold prices and exchange traded funds higher.
However, some central banks are adding to their gold holdings as they try to diversify their strategic reserves away from the U.S. dollar and the wild swings in the currency markets.
Year to date, world central banks have bought 203.5 metric tons of gold, or 168% more than the 76 tons for all of 2010, according to Kitco News. In the first five months of the year, central banks bought the equivalent of 15% of total global gold mining production, according to a Commerzbank research note. [Gold, Silver ETFs Back on the March.]
The majority of the demand is coming from the emerging markets, with Mexico purchasing 98.8 tons, Russia 48 tons, Thailand 26.3 tons and, more recently, South Korea 25 tons.
Observers have noted that central banks are buying to rebalance their portfolios. “They wanted to rebalance it (the percentage) back up to what they believed was the appropriate strategic level,” said Natalie Dempster, director, government affairs, with the World Gold Council. Dempster also notes that more “meaningful” buying will continue, with the “need to rebalance, the deterioration in the quality of other reserve assets, and a continued emphasis on risk management.”
“The central-bank buying is coming on top of speculative buying and creating a Perfect Storm for gold,” remarked Ross Norman, chief executive officer of Sharps Pixley.
Stefan Karlsson for CSMonitor points out that the move by the central banks is a bullish indicator for two reasons. First, demand is higher, and central banks are big movers in the gold markets. Secondly, central bankers may be thinking about implementing policies that would promote inflation, and the banks are trying to hedge against it beforehand. [Gold ETFs Continue to Run.]
Rising demand from central banks is seen as “long-term support for gold prices,” comments David Greely, chief commodities strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The largest gold ETFs include:
- SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD)
- iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU)
- ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (NYSEArca: SGOL)
For more information on gold, visit our gold category.
SPDR Gold Shares
Full disclosure: Tom Lydon’s clients own GLD.
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