Those who are banking on the global economic recovery are closely eying shipping and transportation-related exchange traded funds (ETFs), but the two sectors could see very different performance through the holiday season.

UPS (NYSE: UPS) could help drive the transportation ETF. The world’s largest shipper is on target for a holiday shipping spike this year. At its peak, this season is expected to be busier than the last, the company said the 24 million shipments will be about 60% more than the 15.1 million the company ships on a normal day, according to Dow Jones Newswire on The Wall Street Journal. The busiest day is expected to be Dec. 22. [Transportation ETFs: The Good and the Bad.]

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) also has a bullish outlook for the holidays, forecasting an 11% increase in shipping between Thanksgiving and Christmas. It also expects to make history on Dec. 13 – the shipper predicts that it will ship 16 million packages around the world on that day, making it the busiest ever, reports  The Orlando Business Journal.

Look for a potential holiday season pop in  iShares Dow Jones Transportation (NYSEArca: IYT). UPS is 7.7% of the ETF; FedEx is 10%.

The broader shipping sector is feeling a bit of  a pinch.

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