Goldman Sachs’ economic team recently pulled out their crystal ball to come up with a new world order for the year 2040, and the prognostications could affect exchange traded funds (ETFs) in years to come.
Take heed: this team was the originator of the BRIC concept (Brazil, Russia, China and India), and stated that they were developing countries that were expected to catch up and overcome the bigger economies of the developed world. The BRICs wound up becoming among the top performing countries for 2007.
Now, Goldman has put together its list of the “Next 11” that includes middle-sized economies such as Turkey, Indonesia and Mexico, which are expected to grow fast enough to overcome the older and richer counterparts in the next wave, reports Gwynne Dyer for Scotsman News.
In 2006, Goldman predicted that the Chinese economy would surpass that of the United States’ in 2040, with the Indian economy trailing. But now China has been fast-tracked to 2025, while India’s economy is predicted to be slightly smaller than that of the United States’ by 2050. The economies of Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and Mexico will be bigger than that of Britain’s, they say.
It’s strange to think that back in 1968, few economic analysts would have predicted any of this, any more than they foresaw globalization, the internet or the rise of the euro.
ETFs that might be affected if Goldman’s forecasts are on the money:
- iShares S&P 1500 Index Fund (ISI), down 12.1% year-to-date
- Vanguard All World ex-US (VEU), down 13% year-to-date
- BLDRs Developed Market 100 ADR Index Fund (ADRD), down 14.6% year-to-date
- SPDR Emerging Middle East & Africa Fund (GAF), down 8.1% year-to-date
- iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ), down 2% year-to-date
- SPDR S&P China (GXC), down 22.5% year-to-date
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.