ETF Trends
ETF Trends

The often controversial iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NASDAQ: TUR) is modestly higher to start 2018. If previous seasonal trends hold true to form, the lone Turkey exchange traded fund could be in for more near-term upside.

Last year, Turkish voters voted to disband the country’s parliamentary system and install a strong presidential form of government. That scenario, among others, contributed to strained diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Turkey.

The $380.7 million TUR follows the MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index and holds nearly 70 stocks. TUR charges 0.59% per year, or $59 on a $10,000 investment.

TUR “had a rough fourth quarter, shaken up by Turkey’s deteriorating relations with the U.S. and the high-profile trial of Turkish banker Mehmet Hakan Atilla,” reports Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “By late last month, however, the ETF had clawed its way back to within inches of annual-high territory, peaking just north of $46 — a familiar area of resistance — before retreating with the broader stock market. TUR was last seen 1.1% higher on the day, trading at $44.43.”

Like many single-country emerging markets ETFs, TUR is heavily dependent on the financial services sector. That sector represents 35% of the ETF’s weight, more than double its second-largest sector weight. Industrial and materials stocks combine for over 30% of the fund’s roster. TUR has a 10.4% weight to consumer staples stocks.

“TUR’s upcoming two-month stretch is the best of all four ETFs discussed today, historically. The shares have averaged a March gain of 7.6%, since inception — another rally of that magnitude would place them around $47.81 — a neighborhood not charted since mid-2015. What’s more, TUR averages an even healthier gain of 8.6% in April. That would put the fund around $51.92, if history repeats — a three-year high,” according to Schaeffer’s.

TUR has a three-year standard deviation of 25%, which is well above the same metric on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

For more information on the Turkish markets, visit our Turkey category.