More talk of trade wars came back to rack the markets on Monday, but the tangible impact of tariffs is less than one might think as third-quarter earnings season comes to a close. According to data from FactSet, only 9% of companies that have reported earnings thus far said tariffs are having a negative impact.
Delving deeper into the data of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings, the mention of the word “tariffs” came up during earnings reports less times than the previous quarter–138 as opposed to 157. The decline in the number of instances where tariffs were mentioned could signal that the impact of trade wars could be waning.
“The small decline in the number and percentage of companies discussing tariffs in the third quarter relative to the second quarter may be a sign that there is slightly less concern in corporate America about widespread impacts from the tariffs throughout the economy,” wrote John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points Monday as lingering trade worries crept into the markets with reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to install more tariffs, particularly on vehicles manufactured overseas.
President Trump has considered implementing a 25% tariff on cars made overseas at the beginning of the year, but resistance from auto manufacturers and international governments have largely put those efforts on hold. Criticism directed at President Trump included higher vehicle sales and lost jobs as a result of these proposed tariffs.
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will both be at the G20 summit on November 30 at Buenos Aires in Argentina. Haibin Zhu of J.P. Morgan said there was a 55% chance that the two leaders of the largest global economies would come to a tangible agreement to hash out their trade differences.
“We remain cautious, as the challenge to address US-China conflict remains high,” said Zhu. “The US-China conflict extends beyond trade to areas such as technology, intellectual property rights, market access, industry policy, and ultimately centers on the competition between the two economic superpowers.”
The topic of trade came up during the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the notion of trade wars affecting the economy as one that would not receive considerable attention unless the data necessitated adjustments in monetary policy.
“Until we see it in the numbers, it’s hard to say how one would react,” said Powell.
Related: Trade Spat Not Hurting China’s Internet Expansion
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